Mathematical-Modelling-of-Covid-19-Pandemic

In this report we approach the COVID-19 pandemic currently wreaking havoc all over the world. We have used Compartmental Models in Epidemiology such as SIR, SIRD, SEIRD, etc to model the spread of COVID-19 over time. Following this analysis, the effects of Lockdown, Vaccination are also observed. Age-related analysis of Mortality rate and Time-Restricted Immunity has been studied. This has been done by using ordinary differential equations(ODEs) which is a deterministic method, along with random(stochastic) framework such as the Gillespie Algorithm. To precisely find the basic reproduction rate (R 0 ) we have employed the Next Generation Matrix method. The prediction of the spread of COVID-19 in the real world has been plotted using Linear Regression. These curves of infected persons with respect to number of days are then fitted to see if the form of the spread is a linear, exponential or logistic function. The fitted curve is then extrapolated to predict the spread of COVID-19. In the last part of the report, Agent Based Simulation is used to observe the spread of the infection and depending on that the Economic Effects of COVID-19 and the subsequent lockdown are seen for various strata of society.