Refer to workflow.ipynb for a detailed breakdown on my workflow for this project.
Mixed Martial Arts is a very unpredictable sport. There exists a large number of variables from stemming from the multitude of styles and attacks allowed in the sport. So I've created this mma-predictor to try and make sense of all the chaos and hopefully glimpse into the future!
The data was gathered from UFC Stats using Beautiful Soup and cleaned with NumPy and pandas. Scikit-learn was used to fit a logistic regression model to the data and predict the outcome of a fight.
Initial testing with logistic regression, decision tree classifier, and random forest classifier classifier models yielded prediction rates of 89.93%, 73.83%%, and 85.91% respectively.
To use the predictor, clone the repository and execute the "run-predictor.sh" script. Currently the tool only predicts the next upcoming UFC event. However, I plan to add functionality that will allow for the user to input any two fighters.
Dec. 08, 2018
8/13 (61.5%) of fights predicted correctly
Expected ROI* = +11.1%
| Fighter1 | Fighter2 | Predicted Winner | Correct? |
|---|---|---|---|
| Max Holloway | Brian Ortega | Fighter1 | Y |
| Valentina Shevchenko | Joanna Jedrzejczyk | Fighter2 | N |
| Alex Oliveira | Gunnar Nelson | Fighter1 | N |
| Hakeem Dawodu | Kyle Bochniak | Fighter1 | Y |
| Jimi Manuwa | Thiago Santos | Fighter2 | Y |
| Claudia Gadehla | Nina Ansaroff | Fighter2 | Y |
| Olivier Aubin-Mercier | Gilbert Burns | Fighter1 | N |
| Katlyn Chookagian | Jessica Eye | Fighter1 | N |
| Elias Theodorou | Eryk Anders | Fighter1 | Y |
| Brad Katona | Matthew Lopez | Fighter1 | Y |
| Chad Laprise | Dhiega Lima | Fighter1 | N |
| Diego Ferreira | Kyle Nelson | Fighter1 | Y |
| Devin Clark | Aleksandar Rakic | Fighter2 | Y |
Dec. 01, 2018
6/9 (66.6%) of fights predicted correctly
Exected ROI* = +36.0%
| Fighter1 | Fighter2 | Predicted Winner | Correct? |
|---|---|---|---|
| Junior Dos Santos | Tai Tuivasa | Fighter1 | Y |
| Mauricio Rua | Tyson Pedro | Fighter1 | Y |
| Mark Hunt | Justin Willis | Fighter2 | Y |
| Jake Matthews | Anthony Rocco Martin | Fighter1 | N |
| Jimmy Crute | Paul Craig | Fighter1 | Y |
| Yushin Okami | Aleksei Kunchenko | Fighter1 | N |
| Wilson Reis | Ben Nguyen | Fighter2 | N |
| Keita Nakamura | Salim Touahri | Fighter1 | Y |
| Mizuto Hirota | Christos Giagos | Fighter2 | Y |
*The expected ROI is calculated by assuming an identical wager is placed on each match.
- Get data on betting odds
- Additional feature engineering to improve accuracy
- Migrate data to PostgreSQL