pmichaillat/recession-indicator

Code and data for the paper "Has the Recession Started?"

Has the Recession Started? – Raw Data

This repository contains the raw data accompanying the paper "Has the Recession Started?", written by Pascal Michaillat and Emmanuel Saez, and posted on arXiv in August 2024.

Paper webpage

The paper is available at https://pascalmichaillat.org/16/.

Raw data

The raw data used to produce the results in the paper are stored as CSV files. The data are placed in the folder raw.

• 20210719_cycle_dates_pasted.csv – US recession dates, 1930–2023
  • Source: National Bureau of Economic Research (2023)
• CLF16OV.csv – US labor-force level, 1948–2024
  • Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics (2024)
• CompositeHWI.xlsx - Sheet1.csv – US vacancy rate, 1951–2020
  • Source: Barnichon (2010)
• HistoricalSeries_JME_2020January.csv – US unemployment and vacancy rates, 1890–2017
  • Source: Petrosky-Nadeau, Zhang (2021)
• JTSJOL.csv – Job openings in the United States, 2001–2024
  • Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics (2024)
• UNRATE.csv – US unemployment (U3) rate, 1948–2024
  • Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics (2024)

License

The content of this repository is licensed under the terms of the MIT License.