This package provides the modeling and results used in [The role of global agricultural market integration in multiregional economic modeling: using hindcast experiments to validate an Armington model]
install.packages("devtools")
devtools::install_github("realxinzhao/tradecast")The package is documented in the online manual
The representations of international trade and global market integration play central roles in long-term global agricultural economic modeling. However, the conventional use of the gravity models (i.e., the Armington approach) of trade may not adequately account for the dynamic process of market integration. In this paper, we generalize a logit-based Armington approach by permitting home preference bias erosion to account for a trend of global market integration. We build a simple agricultural economic equilibrium model and conduct hindcast experiments to examine the historical trend of market integration. The results show a significant integrating trend of the global agricultural market implied by converging Armington preference distributions (i.e., home bias erosion) in 1995 – 2015, with a half-life of 45 years. We demonstrate important implications of allowing the dynamic trend of market integration implied by bias erosion on estimating trade elasticities. By testing the future market integration trend implied by historical home bias integration in GCAM, we show a high sensitivity of long-term agroeconomic projections to future trade and market integration scenarios.
- Calvin, Katherine V., Abigail Snyder, Xin Zhao, and Marshall Wise. "Modeling land use and land cover change: using a hindcast to estimate economic parameters in gcamland v2. 0." Geoscientific Model Development 15, no. 2 (2022): 429-447. https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-429-2022
- Yarlagadda, Brinda, Thomas Wild, Xin Zhao, Leon Clarke, Ryna Cui, Zarrar Khan, Abigail Birnbaum, and Jonathan Lamontagne. "Trade and Climate Mitigation Interactions Create Agro‐Economic Opportunities With Social and Environmental Trade‐Offs in Latin America and the Caribbean." Earth's Future 11, no. 4 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1029/2022EF003063
- Zhao, Xin, Katherine V. Calvin, Marshall A. Wise, and Gokul Iyer. "The role of global agricultural market integration in multiregional economic modeling: Using hindcast experiments to validate an Armington model." Economic Analysis and Policy 72 (2021): 1-17. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eap.2021.07.007