Alexis Roldan
I am a data scientist that, motivated by several analysis currently being performed to understand COVID-19 spread in Peru, decided to collaborate by creating different models to help understand and forecast infectation rate across Peru based on molecular test results.
Clearly, I'm no epidemiologist so I will abstain from from providing infrastructure for analyzing the spread of the disease or estimating the effects of non-pharmaceutical interventions. Instead this report serves the purpose to model various Covid-19 related data sources for Peru with a special focus on non-pharmaceutical interventions.
In that way, I hope that it might be helpful for others that are interested in doing research on the Covid 19 pandemic by promoting the benefits of open science.
Currently, this report uses different dataset from different packages and official MINSA reports.
The focus of this report is to analyze current COVID-19 data for Peru by using molecular test only (due to low specificity for selogical tests) and show the forecast difference between combined test results and molecular test results.
Additionally, I focus on predicting when Peru will reach the peak of infection as well as to show how many people will be infected by then.
