UPDATE: I’ve reoriented everything to be around medians instead of means. Medians have been solid from early on, seeing the rise in Green Bay (obvious to anyone with eyes) and fewer large week-to-week swings (as seen on other analytics sites).
Ranking NFL teams using a Real Basic Results-Only algorithm that just looks at the points scored for each team against each opponent in each game and how that compares to the other games the opponent played.
SoS based purely off the points scored and allowed by the opponents of each team:
| Rank | Team | SoS |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tennessee Titans | 4.00 |
| 2 | Arizona Cardinals | 3.00 |
| 2 | Baltimore Ravens | 3.00 |
| 2 | Kansas City Chiefs | 3.00 |
| 2 | Pittsburgh Steelers | 3.00 |
| 2 | Seattle Seahawks | 3.00 |
| 7 | Chicago Bears | 2.50 |
| 7 | Indianapolis Colts | 2.50 |
| 7 | Los Angeles Chargers | 2.50 |
| 7 | Minnesota Vikings | 2.50 |
| 11 | Jacksonville Jaguars | 2.00 |
| 11 | Los Angeles Rams | 2.00 |
| 11 | New York Giants | 2.00 |
| 11 | New York Jets | 2.00 |
| 15 | Cleveland Browns | 1.50 |
| 16 | Las Vegas Raiders | 1.00 |
| 17 | Cincinnati Bengals | 0.50 |
| 17 | Dallas Cowboys | 0.50 |
| 17 | Philadelphia Eagles | 0.50 |
| 20 | Washington Football Team | 0.00 |
| 21 | Green Bay Packers | -0.25 |
| 22 | Detroit Lions | -1.00 |
| 23 | Buffalo Bills | -1.50 |
| 23 | New England Patriots | -1.50 |
| 23 | New Orleans Saints | -1.50 |
| 26 | Denver Broncos | -2.00 |
| 26 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | -2.00 |
| 28 | Carolina Panthers | -2.50 |
| 28 | Miami Dolphins | -2.50 |
| 28 | San Francisco 49ers | -2.50 |
| 31 | Atlanta Falcons | -3.00 |
| 31 | Houston Texans | -3.00 |
OLD: These rankings are a simple mean of the point differentials by a team over the mean point differentials in other games by their opponents.
NEW: Imagine the same as above but with medians. The offensive and defensive scores won’t necessarily add up to the overall score because medians aren’t as nice as means in that way, but I still trust them more.
| Rank | Team | Win % | SoS | ReBaRO Off. | ReBaRO Def. | ReBaRO Overall |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Buffalo Bills | 64% | -1.5 (23) | 9.0 (2) | 7.5 (3) | 20.5 |
| 2 | Arizona Cardinals | 82% | 3.0 (2) | 6.5 (5) | 5.5 (5) | 15.0 |
| 3 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 73% | -2.0 (26) | 10.0 (1) | 2.0 (12) | 13.0 |
| 4 | Green Bay Packers | 75% | -0.2 (21) | 5.5 (9) | 3.5 (9) | 11.2 |
| 5 | New England Patriots | 67% | -1.5 (23) | 0.2 (16) | 8.5 (1) | 9.2 |
| 6 | Kansas City Chiefs | 64% | 3.0 (2) | 6.0 (7) | -2.0 (19) | 7.0 |
| 7 | Los Angeles Rams | 64% | 2.0 (11) | 7.0 (4) | -3.0 (27) | 6.0 |
| 7 | Tennessee Titans | 67% | 4.0 (1) | 3.2 (13) | -3.0 (27) | 6.0 |
| 9 | San Francisco 49ers | 55% | -2.5 (28) | 6.5 (5) | 0.0 (16) | 5.0 |
| 9 | Dallas Cowboys | 64% | 0.5 (17) | 7.5 (3) | -2.0 (19) | 5.0 |
| 9 | Cincinnati Bengals | 64% | 0.5 (17) | 5.0 (11) | 4.5 (8) | 5.0 |
| 12 | Baltimore Ravens | 73% | 3.0 (2) | 1.0 (15) | -2.0 (19) | 3.5 |
| 13 | Minnesota Vikings | 45% | 2.5 (7) | 5.5 (9) | -2.0 (19) | 3.0 |
| 14 | Indianapolis Colts | 50% | 2.5 (7) | 5.8 (8) | 0.0 (16) | 2.8 |
| 15 | Los Angeles Chargers | 55% | 2.5 (7) | 2.5 (14) | -2.0 (19) | 2.0 |
| 16 | Las Vegas Raiders | 55% | 1.0 (16) | 4.0 (12) | -6.0 (32) | 1.0 |
| 17 | Denver Broncos | 55% | -2.0 (26) | -3.5 (21) | 5.0 (7) | 0.5 |
| 18 | New Orleans Saints | 45% | -1.5 (23) | -1.5 (19) | 2.0 (12) | 0.0 |
| 19 | Cleveland Browns | 50% | 1.5 (15) | -0.8 (17) | 5.8 (4) | -2.5 |
| 20 | Philadelphia Eagles | 42% | 0.5 (17) | -3.0 (20) | 2.8 (10) | -2.8 |
| 21 | Seattle Seahawks | 27% | 3.0 (2) | -5.0 (25) | 8.0 (2) | -3.0 |
| 22 | Washington Football Team | 45% | 0.0 (20) | -4.5 (22) | -2.0 (19) | -3.5 |
| 23 | Pittsburgh Steelers | 45% | 3.0 (2) | -1.0 (18) | -2.5 (26) | -4.5 |
| 24 | Miami Dolphins | 42% | -2.5 (28) | -4.8 (24) | 2.2 (11) | -4.8 |
| 25 | Chicago Bears | 36% | 2.5 (7) | -7.5 (29) | 1.0 (15) | -6.0 |
| 26 | New York Giants | 36% | 2.0 (11) | -4.5 (22) | 5.5 (5) | -6.5 |
| 27 | Carolina Panthers | 42% | -2.5 (28) | -6.5 (27) | 2.0 (12) | -7.0 |
| 27 | Detroit Lions | 0% | -1.0 (22) | -9.0 (31) | -2.0 (19) | -7.0 |
| 29 | Jacksonville Jaguars | 18% | 2.0 (11) | -8.0 (30) | -1.5 (18) | -9.0 |
| 30 | Atlanta Falcons | 45% | -3.0 (31) | -6.0 (26) | -3.0 (27) | -9.5 |
| 31 | New York Jets | 27% | 2.0 (11) | -6.5 (27) | -5.5 (31) | -11.5 |
| 32 | Houston Texans | 18% | -3.0 (31) | -12.5 (32) | -4.0 (30) | -14.0 |
What do teams have in store for the future?
| Rank | Team | Future Off. | Future Def. | Future ReBaRO | Future Opp Win% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Carolina Panthers | 9.0 (1) | 2.0 (6) | 13.00 | 60% |
| 2 | Jacksonville Jaguars | 1.8 (11) | -3.0 (31) | 4.38 | 49% |
| 3 | Cleveland Browns | 4.0 (5) | -2.0 (26) | 3.50 | 62% |
| 3 | Denver Broncos | 4.5 (4) | -2.0 (26) | 3.50 | 50% |
| 3 | Pittsburgh Steelers | 2.1 (9) | -2.0 (26) | 3.50 | 62% |
| 6 | Los Angeles Rams | 3.2 (6) | -0.8 (18) | 3.25 | 50% |
| 7 | Chicago Bears | 5.5 (3) | 4.5 (1) | 3.00 | 52% |
| 8 | Cincinnati Bengals | 1.8 (11) | -1.0 (20) | 2.75 | 59% |
| 8 | New England Patriots | 5.8 (2) | 2.2 (4) | 2.75 | 48% |
| 10 | Atlanta Falcons | 2.5 (8) | 2.0 (6) | 2.50 | 46% |
| 11 | Houston Texans | 2.9 (7) | -0.8 (18) | 2.38 | 45% |
| 12 | Detroit Lions | 1.0 (13) | 4.2 (2) | 1.75 | 55% |
| 13 | Baltimore Ravens | 2.1 (9) | 0.5 (13) | 1.25 | 57% |
| 13 | Las Vegas Raiders | 0.9 (14) | -1.0 (20) | 1.25 | 53% |
| 15 | Buffalo Bills | -2.9 (25) | 2.0 (6) | 1.12 | 54% |
| 16 | Indianapolis Colts | 0.2 (18) | -1.5 (24) | 1.00 | 48% |
| 16 | San Francisco 49ers | -0.9 (22) | -3.0 (31) | 1.00 | 48% |
| 18 | Kansas City Chiefs | 0.8 (15) | 1.2 (11) | 0.75 | 55% |
| 18 | Los Angeles Chargers | 0.2 (18) | 1.2 (11) | 0.75 | 49% |
| 20 | Miami Dolphins | -1.5 (23) | 2.0 (6) | 0.00 | 48% |
| 21 | Arizona Cardinals | 0.4 (17) | -1.0 (20) | -0.12 | 40% |
| 22 | Seattle Seahawks | -0.5 (20) | -1.0 (20) | -0.50 | 42% |
| 23 | Washington Football Team | 0.5 (16) | 0.4 (14) | -0.88 | 50% |
| 24 | New York Jets | -2.2 (24) | 2.1 (5) | -1.38 | 47% |
| 25 | Green Bay Packers | -0.8 (21) | -2.0 (26) | -2.50 | 41% |
| 26 | Dallas Cowboys | -3.8 (26) | 2.4 (3) | -3.12 | 49% |
| 26 | New York Giants | -3.8 (26) | -0.5 (16) | -3.12 | 47% |
| 28 | Philadelphia Eagles | -4.5 (29) | -2.0 (26) | -3.50 | 43% |
| 29 | Tennessee Titans | -4.8 (30) | -1.5 (24) | -4.75 | 36% |
| 30 | Minnesota Vikings | -4.2 (28) | -0.5 (16) | -5.25 | 43% |
| 31 | New Orleans Saints | -5.4 (31) | 0.0 (15) | -5.88 | 49% |
| 32 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | -6.2 (32) | 2.0 (6) | -7.00 | 44% |