Expected Goals (xG) Model

A machine learing model to predict the expected goals (xG) of each shot taken on a football field.

What Are Expected Goals (xG)?

Expected goals (or xG) measures the quality of a chance by calculating the likelihood that it will be scored from a particular position on the pitch during a particular phase of play. This value is based on several factors from before the shot was taken. xG is measured on a scale between zero and one, where zero represents a chance that is impossible to score and one represents a chance that a player would be expected to score every single time.

Architecture Diagram

Data Used

Wyscout Data (open-source)

Machine Learning Algorithm Used

Logistic Regression
Decision Tree Method (extreme gradient boost)

Evaluation Metric Used