Expected Goals (xG) Model
A machine learing model to predict the expected goals (xG) of each shot taken on a football field.
![](https://raw.githubusercontent.com/shushrutsharma/expected-goals-model/main/./images/xg-readme.png)
What Are Expected Goals (xG)?
Expected goals (or xG) measures the quality of a chance by calculating the likelihood that it will be scored from a particular position on the pitch during a particular phase of play. This value is based on several factors from before the shot was taken. xG is measured on a scale between zero and one, where zero represents a chance that is impossible to score and one represents a chance that a player would be expected to score every single time.
Architecture Diagram
Data Used
- Wyscout Data (open-source)
Machine Learning Algorithm Used
- Logistic Regression
- Decision Tree Method (extreme gradient boost)
Evaluation Metric Used
- The Brier score
- McFadden's pseudo-R2
- Receiver operating characteristics (ROC)