/EconTimeSeriesFinalProject

Final Project for Big Data ECON 573

MIT LicenseMIT

EconTimeSeriesFinalProject

Final Project for Big Data ECON 573

Research Question

Which Macroeconomic Factors affect the Health and Energy industries?

Data

The prices were taken from Yahoo Finance.

  • VDE = Vanguard Energy ETF (Energy Industry proxy)
  • VHT = Vanguard Health ETF (Health Industry proxy)

Executive Summary

The Following Indicators were the most powerful predictors in predicting ETF industry volatility.

  • Initial Jobless Claims (daily)
  • Unemployment Rate (monthly)
  • CPI (monthly)

Methodology

  • We used the GARCH model to explore the volatility of returns for each ETF
  • We also used the following models:
    • Ridge, Lasso, and Elastic Net Regression
    • Trees and Random Forest