Bayes Prevalence

In response to the need to estimate CV19 prevalence using sample survey data with properties that make traditional frequentist analysis difficult, we combined existing Bayesian approaches to build a new integrated Bayesian approach to solve these challenges:

  1. Very low response including sampling units with no responses at all,
  2. Very few positive cases,
  3. Varying number of results from multiple low-quality antibody tests for each participant,
  4. Antibody tests whose performance characteristics were very poorly described, and
  5. The possibility of selective response.

The model is fully described in this preprint and article in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

Collaborators:

  1. David Kline david.kline@osumc.edu
  2. Richard Li lizehang@ucsc.edu
  3. Yue Chue chu.282@buckeyemail.osu.edu
  4. Jon Wakefield jonno@uw.edu
  5. Abigail Norris Turner ant@osumc.edu
  6. Samuel Clark work@samclark.net