Bitcoin/Crypto Fincancial Analysis - Arbitrage Opportunities

This project entails building a tool to help credit union members evaluate their financial health. Specifically, members should beable to do two things:*
1. They should be able to assess their monthly budgets.*
1. They should be able to forecast a reasonably effective retirement plan based on their current holdings of cryptocurrencies, stocks, and bonds.*

Technologies

Confirm installation of libraries: "conda list requests", "conda list json"
Pip install: dotenv, alpaca-trade-api
Create Alpaca account to obtain your API Key and Secret Key. Both of these should be listed in a file called ".env"

Step 1: Assessing current value of the portfoloio

We use free APIs for our crypto currency evaluation - btc_url = "https://api.alternative.me/v2/ticker/Bitcoin/?convert=USD" eth_url = "https://api.alternative.me/v2/ticker/Ethereum/?convert=USD"
Use the Alpaca API to pull in current data for stock and bond portfolio. For use here, we are using SPY and AGG to represent each.

Step 2: Assessing emergency fund requirements

Step 1: Collect Data

3 years of portfolio returns assumming a 40-60 allocation (40% bonds and 60% stocks) using the Alpaca API

Step 2: Run simulations

Run a 30 year Monte Carlo Simulation to determine the range of potential portfolio returns over the next 30 years.

Run a 10 year Monte Carlo Simulation to determine the range of potential portfolio returns over the next 10 years. We chose to alter the portfolio to include a 20-80 allocation (bonds to stocks) in order to test if a more aggressive approach would shorten the time to retirement. As you can see below, the distribution is greater. I would hypothesize that this is because the asset allocation is riskier. Also, the average return is still 2.5x lower than the 30 year average expected return.

This software is licensed under GNU General Public License v3.0. See the LICENSE file for details.