This is my forecast about COVID-19 disease in Italy
The forecast is tuned by the last data of today and it'll update daily.
The forecast is based on SIR epidemic model, a mathematical model to describe a spread of a disease in a population, where a I built the model and tuned the parameters to fit the current behavior of spread.
The circle represents observed data coming from "data repository for the 2019 Novel Coronavirus Visual Dashboard" and aligned with the one of Protezione Civile.
The star represents the forecast predicted by the model.
Forecast
The timeline starts at t=24/02/2020
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From here we will show SIRD model and the Daily Increment
