Train on 2000-2016 data, evaluate on 2016-2017 season. In the future, would like to do K-fold cross-validation omitting 1 season at a time.
Compute predicted score delta (from the perspective of the away team) and bet on a direction with respect to the line from scraped historical spread data. If the direction matches the actual score delta, the bet is deemed a winner and otherwise, a loser.
away stats (19), home stats (19) = 38 total features
FGM, FGA, FG%, 3PM, 3PA, 3P%, FTM, FTA, FT%, OREB, DREB, REB, AST, STL, BLK, TOV, PF, PTS, PLUSMINUS
0 games in
Win Percent: 0.515650741351
Loss Percent: 0.484349258649
Bets placed: 1214
Bets not placed: 0
400 games in
Win Percent: 0.527027027027
Loss Percent: 0.472972972973
Bets placed: 814
Bets not placed: 0
800 games in
Win Percent: 0.548309178744
Loss Percent: 0.451690821256
Bets placed: 414
Bets not placed: 0
1000 games in
Win Percent: 0.584112149533
Loss Percent: 0.415887850467
Bets placed: 214
Bets not placed: 0
away stats (34), home stats (34) = 68 total features
FGM, FGA, FG%, 3PM, 3PA, 3P%, FTM, FTA, FT%, OREB, DREB, REB, AST, STL, BLK, TOV, PF, PTS, PLUSMINUS, OFF_RATING, DEF_RATING, NET_RATING, AST_PCT, AST_TOV, AST_RATIO, OREB_PCT, DREB_PCT, REB_PCT, TM_TOV_PCT, EFG_PCT, TS_PCT, USG_PCT, PACE, PIE
0 games in
Win Percent: 0.504942339374
Loss Percent: 0.495057660626
Bets placed: 1214
Bets not placed: 0
400 games in
Win Percent: 0.518427518428
Loss Percent: 0.481572481572
Bets placed: 814
Bets not placed: 0
800 games in
Win Percent: 0.538647342995
Loss Percent: 0.461352657005
Bets placed: 414
Bets not placed: 0
1000 games in
Win Percent: 0.570093457944
Loss Percent: 0.429906542056
Bets placed: 214
Bets not placed: 0
away stats (19), home stats (19) = 38 total features
FGM, FGA, FG%, 3PM, 3PA, 3P%, FTM, FTA, FT%, OREB, DREB, REB, AST, STL, BLK, TOV, PF, PTS, PLUSMINUS
0 games in
Win Percent: 0.511532125206
Loss Percent: 0.488467874794
Bets placed: 1214
Bets not placed: 0
400 games in
Win Percent: 0.530712530713
Loss Percent: 0.469287469287
Bets placed: 814
Bets not placed: 0
800 games in
Win Percent: 0.553140096618
Loss Percent: 0.446859903382
Bets placed: 414
Bets not placed: 0
1000 games in
Win Percent: 0.579439252336
Loss Percent: 0.420560747664
Bets placed: 214
Bets not placed: 0
away stats (34), home stats (34) = 68 total features
FGM, FGA, FG%, 3PM, 3PA, 3P%, FTM, FTA, FT%, OREB, DREB, REB, AST, STL, BLK, TOV, PF, PTS, PLUSMINUS, OFF_RATING, DEF_RATING, NET_RATING, AST_PCT, AST_TOV, AST_RATIO, OREB_PCT, DREB_PCT, REB_PCT, TM_TOV_PCT, EFG_PCT, TS_PCT, USG_PCT, PACE, PIE
0 games in
Win Percent: 0.519769357496
Loss Percent: 0.480230642504
Bets placed: 1214
Bets not placed: 0
400 games in
Win Percent: 0.531941031941
Loss Percent: 0.468058968059
Bets placed: 814
Bets not placed: 0
800 games in
Win Percent: 0.550724637681
Loss Percent: 0.449275362319
Bets placed: 414
Bets not placed: 0
1000 games in
Win Percent: 0.551401869159
Loss Percent: 0.448598130841
Bets placed: 214
Bets not placed: 0
alpha = 0.1
away stats (19), home stats (19) = 38 total features
FGM, FGA, FG%, 3PM, 3PA, 3P%, FTM, FTA, FT%, OREB, DREB, REB, AST, STL, BLK, TOV, PF, PTS, PLUSMINUS
0 games in
Win Percent: 0.518945634267
Loss Percent: 0.481054365733
Bets placed: 1214
Bets not placed: 0
400 games in
Win Percent: 0.534398034398
Loss Percent: 0.465601965602
Bets placed: 814
Bets not placed: 0
800 games in
Win Percent: 0.562801932367
Loss Percent: 0.437198067633
Bets placed: 414
Bets not placed: 0
1000 games in
Win Percent: 0.593457943925
Loss Percent: 0.406542056075
Bets placed: 214
Bets not placed: 0
away stats (34), home stats (34) = 68 total features
FGM, FGA, FG%, 3PM, 3PA, 3P%, FTM, FTA, FT%, OREB, DREB, REB, AST, STL, BLK, TOV, PF, PTS, PLUSMINUS, OFF_RATING, DEF_RATING, NET_RATING, AST_PCT, AST_TOV, AST_RATIO, OREB_PCT, DREB_PCT, REB_PCT, TM_TOV_PCT, EFG_PCT, TS_PCT, USG_PCT, PACE, PIE
0 games in
Win Percent: 0.523064250412
Loss Percent: 0.476935749588
Bets placed: 1214
Bets not placed: 0
400 games in
Win Percent: 0.539312039312
Loss Percent: 0.460687960688
Bets placed: 814
Bets not placed: 0
800 games in
Win Percent: 0.557971014493
Loss Percent: 0.442028985507
Bets placed: 414
Bets not placed: 0
1000 games in
Win Percent: 0.588785046729
Loss Percent: 0.411214953271
Bets placed: 214
Bets not placed: 0