/Markov-Baseball

Markov Analysis of Baseball Run Scoring Events

Primary LanguagePython

Markov Analysis of Baseball Run Socring Events

The main file of this project is Markov_Baseball.py

Participants: Jimmy Gardner and Varun Sharma

Results applied to Community College Baseball League

Stolen Bases


SB Success Rate: 0.741522230595

0_1__ ER Pre: 0.82 0__2_ ER Post: 0.84 Steal

0__2_ ER Pre: 1.06 0___3 ER Post: 0.84 Dont Steal

0_12_ ER Pre: 1.46 0_1_3 ER Post: 1.2 Dont Steal

0_1_3 ER Pre: 1.46 0__23 ER Post: 1.43 Dont Steal

1_1__ ER Pre: 0.45 1__2_ ER Post: 0.51 Steal

1__2_ ER Pre: 0.67 1___3 ER Post: 0.51 Dont Steal

1_12_ ER Pre: 0.92 1_1_3 ER Post: 0.73 Dont Steal

1_1_3 ER Pre: 0.92 1__23 ER Post: 0.93 Steal

2_1__ ER Pre: 0.16 2__2_ ER Post: 0.24 Steal

2__2_ ER Pre: 0.32 2___3 ER Post: 0.24 Dont Steal

2_12_ ER Pre: 0.43 2_1_3 ER Post: 0.32 Dont Steal

2_1_3 ER Pre: 0.43 2__23 ER Post: 0.44 Steal

Bunting


0_1__ ER Pre: 0.82 1__2_ ER Post: 0.67 Don't Bunt

0__2_ ER Pre: 1.06 1___3 ER Post: 0.67 Don't Bunt

0_12_ ER Pre: 1.46 1__23 ER Post: 1.15 Don't Bunt

0_1_3 ER Pre: 1.46 1__23 ER Post: 1.15 Don't Bunt

1_1__ ER Pre: 0.45 2__2_ ER Post: 0.32 Don't Bunt

1__2_ ER Pre: 0.67 2___3 ER Post: 0.32 Don't Bunt

1_12_ ER Pre: 0.92 2__23 ER Post: 0.59 Don't Bunt

1_1_3 ER Pre: 0.92 2__23 ER Post: 0.59 Don't Bunt

Sources

Pankin: http://www.pankin.com/markov/theory.htm

Sokol: http://archive.ite.journal.informs.org/Vol5No1/Sokol/

Kuennen PPT: www.uwosh.edu/faculty_staff/kuennene/Baseball.ppt‎‎

Palacios: http://m.njit.edu/~bukiet/Papers/ball.pdf

Baseball SQL Event Database from: http://www.baseballheatmaps.com/retrosheet-database-download/