/roulette_grpc

Primary LanguageGoGNU General Public License v2.0GPL-2.0

Setup & Run

go install google.golang.org/protobuf/cmd/protoc-gen-go@v1.28
go install google.golang.org/grpc/cmd/protoc-gen-go-grpc@v1.2
export PATH="$PATH:$(go env GOPATH)/bin"

In Terminal #1:

go run server/main.go -p <port>

In Terminal #2:

go run client/main.go -f <filename> -l <host>:<port>

Configuration of a Strategy

{
	"prob":     < success probability >,
	"wage":     < initial wage >,
	"stepFunc": < wage increasing strategy >,
	"stopLoss": < upper loss bound >,
	"winRound": < calculate until k-th round >,
    "meanShift": < expected winning probability of house [0 = perfectly fair, 1 = house always wins] >
}

Stake Strategy

Start

Explanation: The game starts with an initial stake $f(0)$

Step

Explanation: Define a strategy for increasing the stakes, which considers two factors at hand:

  • Recovery of Failed Bets: The overall outcome after losing in $X_1, …, X_{n-1}$ and winning in $X_n$.
  • Final Potential Damage: The overall loss expected after losing in all $X_1, …, X_n$.

Options:

  • 'two' (Power of Two): After each losing, the stake is doubled. $f(k) = 2^k$
  • 'fib' (Fibonacci): After losing k-1 bets, the stake is equal to the k-th Fibonacci number. $f(k) = fib(k)$.

Default: 'two'

Controls: Financial Stability

Stop

Explanation: Under what circumstances the game should be stopped.

Options:

  • 'stopLoss': If at least $N$ was lost ( = bankruptcy), stop the current increasing strategy.

Simultaneous Games

Explanation: If $n$ games are played at once, this leads to a standard normal distribution: $Y = \underset{i \in [n]}\sum \frac{X_i - \mu}{\sigma \sqrt{n}}$ with $\mu = -\frac{1}{74} \approx -0.014$ and $\sigma = \frac{1341}{1369} \approx 0.989$

Critique:

On the one hand: The more games are played simultaneously, the more likely the expected outcome is negative, so the number of games should not be very high.

On the other hand: Rare events can affect the whole system, if the number of games are very low, so the number of games should not be very low.

Controls: Stability of Results

Success Probability [EXAMPLES]

Explanation: How high the probability of success is for each round.

Options:

  • 'xl-risky': $p = 0.1$
  • 'l-risky': $p = 0.2$
  • 'm-risky': $p = 0.3$
  • 's-risky': $p = 0.4$
  • 'fair': $p = 0.5$
  • 's-safe': $p = 0.6$
  • 'm-safe': $p = 0.7$
  • 'l-safe': $p = 0.8$
  • 'xl-safe': $p = 0.9$

Default: 'fair'

Controls: Winning probability

Dependence on Prior Results [IT DOESN'T MATTER]

Explanation: Given $X_1, …, X_{n-1}$ events with identical outcomes, predict $X_n$.

Options:

  • 'corr' (Correlation): Choose $X_n$ the same as before
  • 'regr' (Regression to the Mean): Pick the opposite for $X_n$

Default: 'regr'

Disclaim: Both assumptions are false. There is no proven hidden connection between a current event and events occurred previously. But one of the both assumptions appear to be more reliable in various cases.

Controls: Playing strategy