Most comprehensive professionally curated list of Awesome Conformal Prediction tutorials, videos, books, papers and open-source libraries in Python and R.
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Why Conformal Prediction?
One of the most influential and celebrated machine learning researchers - Professor Michael I. Jordan:
'๐๐ผ๐ป๐ณ๐ผ๐ฟ๐บ๐ฎ๐น ๐ฃ๐ฟ๐ฒ๐ฑ๐ถ๐ฐ๐๐ถ๐ผ๐ป ๐ถ๐ฑ๐ฒ๐ฎ๐ ๐ฎ๐ฟ๐ฒ ๐ง๐๐ ๐ฎ๐ป๐๐๐ฒ๐ฟ ๐๐ผ ๐จ๐ค (๐๐ป๐ฐ๐ฒ๐ฟ๐๐ฎ๐ถ๐ป๐๐ ๐พ๐๐ฎ๐ป๐๐ถ๐ณ๐ถ๐ฐ๐ฎ๐๐ถ๐ผ๐ป), ๐ ๐๐ต๐ถ๐ป๐ธ ๐ถ๐'๐ ๐๐ต๐ฒ ๐ฏ๐ฒ๐๐ ๐ ๐ต๐ฎ๐๐ฒ ๐๐ฒ๐ฒ๐ป - ๐ถ๐๐ ๐๐ถ๐บ๐ฝ๐น๐ฒ, ๐ด๐ฒ๐ป๐ฒ๐ฟ๐ฎ๐น๐ถ๐๐ฎ๐ฏ๐น๐ฒ ๐ฒ๐๐ฐ.' (ICML 2021 UQ workshop). ๐ฅ๐ฅ๐ฅ๐ฅ๐ฅ
One the most influential statistics Professors - Larry Wasserman (Carnegie Mellon):
'๐ฆ๐ผ ๐๐ต๐ฒ ๐ฏ๐ฒ๐ฎ๐๐๐ ๐ผ๐ณ ๐๐ต๐ฒ ๐ฐ๐ผ๐ป๐ณ๐ผ๐ฟ๐บ๐ฎ๐น ๐๐ต๐ถ๐ป๐ด ๐ถ๐ ๐ต๐ผ๐ ๐๐ถ๐บ๐ฝ๐น๐ฒ ๐ถ๐ ๐ถ๐ ๐๐ผ ๐ฑ๐ผ ๐ถ๐ ๐ฎ๐ป๐ฑ ๐ต๐ผ๐ ๐ด๐ฒ๐ป๐ฒ๐ฟ๐ฎ๐น ๐ถ๐ ๐ถ๐. ๐ฆ๐ผ ๐ ๐๐ต๐ถ๐ป๐ธ ๐๐ผ๐ ๐ธ๐ป๐ผ๐ ๐ถ๐ฑ๐ฒ๐ฎ๐ ๐๐ต๐ฎ๐ ๐ฐ๐ฎ๐๐ฐ๐ต ๐ผ๐ป, ๐ด๐ฒ๐ป๐ฒ๐ฟ๐ฎ๐น ๐ถ๐ฑ๐ฒ๐ฎ๐ ๐๐ต๐ฎ๐ ๐ฎ๐ฟ๐ฒ ๐ฝ๐ฟ๐ฒ๐๐๐ ๐ด๐ฒ๐ป๐ฒ๐ฟ๐ฎ๐น ๐ฎ๐ป๐ฑ ๐๐๐ฌ๐ฒ ๐ญ๐จ ๐ข๐ฆ๐ฉ๐ฅ๐๐ฆ๐๐ง๐ญ ๐ญ๐ก๐๐ญ ๐ฒ๐จ๐ฎ ๐๐๐ง ๐ฉ๐ข๐๐ญ๐ฎ๐ซ๐ ๐ฒ๐จ๐ฎ๐ซ๐ฌ๐๐ฅ๐ ๐ฎ๐ฌ๐ข๐ง๐ ๐ข๐ง ๐ซ๐๐๐ฅ ๐๐ฉ๐ฉ๐ฅ๐ข๐๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง๐ฌ ๐๐ซ๐ ๐ญ๐ก๐ ๐ซ๐๐๐ฌ๐จ๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐๐ญ ๐ฉ๐๐จ๐ฉ๐ฅ๐ ๐ฎ๐ฌ๐ข๐ง๐ ๐๐จ๐ง๐๐จ๐ซ๐ฆ๐๐ฅ ๐ฉ๐ซ๐๐๐ข๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง.' ๐๐๐๐๐
https://slideslive.com/icml-2021/workshop-on-distributionfree-uncertainty-quantification
When both the top machine learning and the top statistic professors from the best research labs in the world say this about conformal prediction it is quite an endorsement.
In 2022 conformal prediction research experienced exponential growth in academia and with the availabity of open-source libaries the industry is positioned to replicate this growth in the industry.
๐ข๐ขIndustry take notice. The revolution in Uncertainty Quantification / Probabilistic Prediction / Forecasting is already here ๐ข๐ข A big one ๐ฅ๐ฅ๐ฅ๐ฅ๐ฅ
๐ ๐ ๐ ๐ ๐
Featured resources:
A Gentle Introduction to Conformal Prediction and Distribution-Free Uncertainty Quantification
This is newest version of the super-popular tutorial on Conformal Prediction (over 3,500 stars on YouTube) now significantly expanded (2x), including advanced techniques such as covariate shift conformal, as well as a super fun history and literature review in Section 7.
A Tutorial on Conformal Prediction by Anastasios Angelopoulos and Stephen Bates (2021) ๐ฅ๐ฅ๐ฅ๐ฅ๐ฅ
A Tutorial on Conformal Prediction Part 2: Conditional Coverage and Diagnostics by Anastasios Angelopoulos and Stephen Bates (2022)
โญโญ๏ธโญ๏ธโญ๏ธโญ๏ธ
- Algorithmic Learning in a Random World by Vladimir Vovk and Alex Gammerman, also Glenn Shafer (2005). Second edition in progress. ๐ฅ๐ฅ๐ฅ๐ฅ๐ฅ
- Conformal Prediciton for Reliable Machine Learning by Vineeth Balasubramanian, Shen-Shyang Ho, Vladimir Vovk (2014) ๐ฅ๐ฅ๐ฅ๐ฅ๐ฅ
- Conformal predictive distributions with kernels by Vladimir Vovk, Ilia Nouretdinov, Valery Manokhin, Alex Gammerman (Chapter in 'Braverman Readings in Machine Learning. Key Ideas from Inception to Current State', Springer, 2018). ๐ฅ๐ฅ๐ฅ๐ฅ๐ฅ
- Confidence, Likelihood, Probability by Tore Schweder and Nils Lid Hjort (University of Oslo, 2016). Not directly about Conformal Prediction but a great book about modern frequentist methods. ๐ฅ๐ฅ๐ฅ๐ฅ๐ฅ
- Conformal and Venn Predictors for large, imbalanced and sparse chemoinformatics data by Paolo Toccaceli (Royal Holloway, UK, 2021)
- Competitive online algorithms for probabilistic prediction by Raisa Dzhamtyrova (Royal Holloway, UK, 2020)
- Conformal Prediction and Testing under On-line Compression Models by Valentina Fedorova (Royal Holloway, UK, 2014)
- Adaptive Online Learning by Dmitry Adamskiy (Royal Holloway, UK, 2013)
- On discovery and exploitation of temporal structure in data sets by Scarfe, Tim (Royal Holloway, UK, 2015)
- Black-box Security Measuring Black-box Information Leakage via Machine Learning by Giovanni Cherubin (Royal Holloway, UK, 2019)
- Small and Large Scale Probabilistic Classifiers with Guarantees of Validity by Ivan Petej (Royal Holloway, UK, 2019)
- Towards a Question Answering View of Natural Language Processing by Zukov Gregoric, Andrej (Royal Holloway, UK, 2019)
- Confidence and Venn Machines and Their Applications to Proteomics by Devetyarov, Dmitry (Royal Holloway, UK, 2019)
- Conformal Anomaly Detection - detecting abnormanl trajectories in surveillance applications by Rikard Laxhammar (University of Skoeve, Sweden, 2014)
- Inductive Confidence Machine for Pattern Recognition - is it the next step towards AI by David Surkov (Royal Holloway, UK, 2004)
- Distribution Free Prediction Intervals for Multiple Functional Regression by Ryan Kelly (University of Pittsburgh, 2020).
- Probabilistic Load Forecasting with Deep Conformalized Quantile Regression by Vilde Jensen (Artcic University of Norway, 2021)
- A Gentle Introduction to Conformal Prediction and Distribution-Free Uncertainty Quantification by Anastasios N. Angelopoulos and Stephen Bates (2021) ๐ฅ๐ฅ๐ฅ๐ฅ๐ฅ
- A Tutorial on Conformal Prediction by Anastasios Angelopoulos and Stephen Bates (2021) ๐ฅ๐ฅ๐ฅ๐ฅ๐ฅ
- A Tutorial on Conformal Predictive Distributions by Paolo Toccaceli (2020) ๐ฅ๐ฅ๐ฅ๐ฅ๐ฅ
- Conformal Prediciton Tutorial by Henrik Linusson (2021) ๐ฅ๐ฅ๐ฅ๐ฅ๐ฅ
- Henrik Linusson: Conformal Prediction by Henrik Linusson (2020)
- Predicting with Confidence - Henrik Bostrรถm by Henrik Bostrรถm (2016)
- Venn Predictors Tutorial by Ulf Johansson, Cecilia Sรถnstrรถd, Tuve Lรถfstrรถm, and Henrik Bostrรถm (2021)
- Ulf Johansson: Venn Predictors by Ulf Johansson (2020)
- A Tutorial on Conformal Prediction by Glenn Shafer and Vladimir Vovk (2008) ๐ฅ๐ฅ๐ฅ๐ฅ๐ฅ
- Conformal Prediction: a Unified Review of Theory and New Challenges by Gianluca Zeni, Matteo Fontana1 and Simone Vantini (Politecnico di Milano, Italy, 2021)
- Conformal Prediction in Spark by Marco Capuccini (Uppsala University, 2017)
- Tutorial on Venn-ABERS prediction by Paolo Toccaceli (Royal Holloway, UK, 2017) ๐ฅ๐ฅ๐ฅ๐ฅ๐ฅ
- An Introduction to Conformal Prediction by Henrik Linusson (2017) ๐ฅ๐ฅ๐ฅ๐ฅ๐ฅ
- Introduction to Conformal Prediction by Vineeth N Balasubramanian (Indian Ins)tute of Technology, Hyderabad, 2015)
- Treatment of Uncertainty in the Foundations of Probability by Vladimir Vovk (Royal Holloway, UK, 2017)
- Large-Scale Probabilistic Prediction With and Without Validity Guarantees by Vladimir Vovk (Royal Holloway, UK, NeurIPS 2015) ๐ฅ๐ฅ๐ฅ๐ฅ๐ฅ
- Conformal testing in a binary model situation by Vladimir Vovk (Royal Holloway, UK, 2021)
- Protected probabilistic classification by Vladimir Vovk (Royal Holloway, UK, 2021)
- Retrain or not retrain: conformal test martingales for change-point detection by Vladimir Vovk (Royal Holloway, UK, 2021) ๐ฅ๐ฅ๐ฅ๐ฅ๐ฅ
- A Tutorial on Conformal Prediction by Anastasios Angelopoulos and Stephen Bates (Berkeley, ICML 2021) ๐ฅ๐ฅ๐ฅ๐ฅ๐ฅ
- Steps Toward Trustworthy Machine Learning by Tom Dietterich (2021)
- A Tutorial on Conformal Predictive Distributions by Paolo Toccaceli (Royal Holloway, UK, 2020) ๐ฅ๐ฅ๐ฅ๐ฅ๐ฅ
- Conformal Prediciton Tutorial by Henrik Linusson (2021) ๐ฅ๐ฅ๐ฅ๐ฅ๐ฅ
- Henrik Linusson: Conformal Prediction by Henrik Linusson (2020)
- Predicting with Confidence - Henrik Bostrรถm by Henrik Bostrรถm (2016)
- How to increase certainty in predictive modeling by Emmanuel Candes (Stanford, 2021) ๐ฅ๐ฅ๐ฅ๐ฅ๐ฅ
- Recent Progress in Predictive Inference by Emmanuel Candes (Stanford, 2020) ๐ฅ๐ฅ๐ฅ๐ฅ๐ฅ
- Some recent progress in predictive inference" (Stanford) @ MAD+ by Emmanuel Candes (Stanford, 2020)
- Conformal Prediciton in 2020 by Emmanuel Candes (Stanford, 2020) ๐ฅ๐ฅ๐ฅ๐ฅ๐ฅ
- Assumption-free prediction intervals for black-box regression algorithms by Aaditya Ramdas (Carnegie Mellon, 2020) ๐ฅ๐ฅ๐ฅ๐ฅ๐ฅ
- Maria Navarro: Quantifying uncertainty in Machine Learning predictions | PyData London 2019 by Maria Navarro (2019)
- Conformal Prediction: Enhanced Method for Understanding the Prediction Quality by Artem Ryasik and Greg Landrum
- Venn Predictors Tutorial by Ulf Johansson, Cecilia Sรถnstrรถd, Tuwe Lรถfstrรถm, and Henrik Bostrรถm (2021)
- Mondrian conformal predictive distributions by Henrik Bostrรถm, Ulf Johansson, and Tuwe Lรถfstrรถm (2021) ๐ฅ๐ฅ๐ฅ๐ฅ๐ฅ
- Calibrating Multi-Class Models by Ulf Johansson, Tuwe Lรถfstrรถm, and Henrik Bostrรถm (2021)
- Conformal testing in a binary model situation by Vladimir Vovk (Royal Holloway, UK, 2021)
- Conformal prediction in Orange by Tomaลพ Hoฤevar and Blaลพ Zupan (2021)
- Distribution-Free, Risk-Controlling Prediction Sets by Anastasios Angelopoulos (Stanford, 2021) ๐ฅ๐ฅ๐ฅ๐ฅ๐ฅ
- Conformal Prediction and Distribution-Free Calibration by Aaditya Ramdas (Carnegie Mellon, 2021) ๐ฅ๐ฅ๐ฅ๐ฅ๐ฅ
- Reliable Diagnostics by Conformal Predictors by Alexander Gammerman (Royal Holloway, UK, 2015)
- Distribution-Free, Risk-Controlling Prediction Sets by Anastasios Angelopoulos (Stanford, 2021) ๐ฅ๐ฅ๐ฅ๐ฅ๐ฅ
- Conformal Inference of Counterfactuals and Time-to-event Outcomes by Lihua Lei (Stanford, 2021)
- Algo Hour โ Conformal Inference of Counterfactuals and Individual Treatment Effect by Lihua Lei (Stanford, 2021)
- Conformal Inference of Counterfactuals and Individual Treatment effects(Stanford) by Lihua Lei (Stanford, 2021)
- Approximation to object conditional validity with inductive conformal predictors by Anthony Bellotti (University of Nottingham Ningbo, China, 2021)
- Ulf Johansson: Venn Predictors by Ulf Johansson (Jรถnkรถping University, Sweden, 2021) ๐ฅ๐ฅ๐ฅ๐ฅ๐ฅ
- Transformer-based conformal predictors for paraphrase detection by Patrizio Giavannotti and Prof. Alexander Gammerman (Royal Holloway, UK, 2021)
- Conformal Inference of Counterfactuals and Individual Treatment Effects by Lihua Lei (Stanford, 2020)
- Model-Free Predictive Inference by Larry Wasserman (Carnegie Mellon, 2020) ๐ฅ๐ฅ๐ฅ๐ฅ๐ฅ
- Shapley-value based inductive conformal prediction by William Lopez Jaramillo (2021)
- Conformal Training: Learning Optimal Conformal Classifiers | DeepMind by David Stutz (2021) ๐ฅ๐ฅ๐ฅ๐ฅ๐ฅ
- Distribution-Free, Risk-Controlling Prediction Sets by Anastasios Angelopoulos (2021) ๐ฅ๐ฅ๐ฅ๐ฅ๐ฅ
- Assumption-Free, High-Dimensional Inference by Larry Wasserman (2016)
- Neural Predictive Monitoring under Partial Observability by Francesca Cairolli (2021)
- Conformalized Kernel Ridge Regression and Its Efficiency by Evgeny Burnaev (Skolkovo, Russia, 2015)
- Fast conformal classification using influence functions by Giovanni Cherubin (Alan Turing Institute, UK, 2021)
- Valid inferential models and conformal prediction by Ryan Martin (North Carolina State University, USA, 2021)
- Mondrian conformal predictive distributions by Henrik Bostrรถm, Ulf Johansson and Tuwe Lรถfstrรถm (KTH Royal Institute of Technology, Sweden, 2021) ๐ฅ๐ฅ๐ฅ๐ฅ๐ฅ
- Evaluation of updating strategies for conformal predictive systems in the presence of extreme events by Hugo Werner, Lars Carlsson, Ernst Ahlberg and and Henrik Bostrรถm (KTH Royal Institute of Technology, Sweden, 2021)
- Exact and Robust Conformal Inference Methods for Predictive Machine Learning With Dependent Data by Victor Chernozhukov (MIT, USA, 2019) ๐ฅ๐ฅ๐ฅ๐ฅ๐ฅ
- Ulf Johansson: Venn Predictors by Ulf Johansson (Jรถnkรถping University, Sweden, 2020) ๐ฅ๐ฅ๐ฅ๐ฅ๐ฅ
- Class-wise confidence for debt prediction in real estate management by Soundouss Messoudi (2021)
- How Nonconformity Functions and Difficulty of Datasets Impact the Efficiency of Conformal Classifiers by Marharyta Aleksandrova (2021)
- Nested conformal prediction and quantile out-of-bag ensemble methods by Chirag Gupta (Carnegie Mellon, 2020) ๐ฅ๐ฅ๐ฅ๐ฅ๐ฅ
- Panel with Michael I. Jordan, Vladimir Vovk, and Larry Wasserman, moderated by Aaditya Ramdas by Vladimir Vovk, Larry Wasserman, Michael I. Jordan, Aaditya Ramdas, ICML 2021 ๐ฅ๐ฅ๐ฅ๐ฅ๐ฅ ๐ฅ๐ฅ๐ฅ๐ฅ๐ฅ
- Black-box uncertainty - Anastasios Angelopoulos by Anastasios Angelopoulos (Berkeley, USA, 2021) ๐ฅ๐ฅ๐ฅ๐ฅ๐ฅ
- P.C. Mahalanobis Memorial Lectures 2020-21 by Vladimir Vovk (Royal Holloway, UK, 2021)
- Rahul Vishwakarma: New Perspective on Machine Learning Predictions Under Uncertainty | SNIA Storage Developer Conference, Santa Clara 2019 by Rahul Vishwakarma (2019)
- Fast conformal classification using influence functions by Umang Bhatt, Adrian Weller and Giovanni Cherubin (Cambridge / Alan Turinig Institute, 2021).
- Introducing Conformal Prediction in Predictive Modeling. A Transparent and Flexible Alternative to Applicability Domain Determination by Ulf Norinder, Lars Carlsson, Scott Boyer, and Martin Eklund (2014)
- Uncertainty Sets for Image Classifiers using Conformal Prediction by Anastasios N. Angelopoulos, Stephen Bates, Jitendra Malik, & Michael I. Jordan (Berkeley, 2021) ๐ฅ๐ฅ๐ฅ๐ฅ๐ฅ
- Conformal Prediction Under Covariate Shift by Ryan Tibshirani, Rina Foygel Barber, Emmanuel Candes, Aaditya Ramdas (Carnegie Mellon, Stanford, Chicago, 2019) ๐ฅ๐ฅ๐ฅ๐ฅ๐ฅ
- Regression Conformal Prediction with Nearest Neighbours by Harris Papadopoulos, Vladimir Vovk and Alex Gammerman (Royal Holloway, UK, 2014)
- Nested conformal prediction and quantile out-of-bag ensemble methods by Chirag Gupta, Arun Kuchibhotla and Aaditya Ramdas (Carnegie Mellon, 2021) ๐ฅ๐ฅ๐ฅ๐ฅ๐ฅ
- Cross-conformal predictive distributions by Vladimir Vovk, Ilia Nouretdinov, Valery Manokhin and Alexander Gammerman (Royal Holloway, UK, 2018) ๐ฅ๐ฅ๐ฅ๐ฅ๐ฅ ๐ฅ๐ฅ๐ฅ๐ฅ๐ฅ
- Criteria of Efficiency for Conformal Prediction by Vladimir Vovk, Ilia Nouretdinov, Valentina Fedorova, Ivan Petej, and Alex Gammerman ((Royal Holloway, UK, 2016)
- Conformal Prediction for Simulation Models by Benjamin LeRoy and Chad Schafer (Carnegie Mellon, 2021)
- Distribution-free, risk-controlling prediction sets Stephen Bates, Anastasios Angelopoulos, Lihua Lei, Jitendra Malik and Michael I Jordan (Berkeley, 2021) ๐ฅ๐ฅ๐ฅ๐ฅ๐ฅ
- Conditional calibration for false discovery rate control under dependence by William Fithian and Lihua Lei (Stanford, 2021)
- Conformal Prediction: a Unified Review of Theory and New Challenges by Gianluca Zeni, Matteo Fontana and S. Vantini (2021) ๐ฅ๐ฅ๐ฅ๐ฅ๐ฅ
- Regression conformal prediction with random forests by Ulf Johansson, Henrik Bostrรถm, Tuve Lรถfstrรถm and Henrik Linusson (2014)
- A conformal prediction approach to explore functional data by Jing Lei, Alessandro Rinaldo, Larry Wasserman (Carnegie Mellon, 2013)
- An electronic nose-based assistive diagnostic prototype for lung cancer detection with conformal prediction by Xianghao Zhana,c, Zhan Wanga, Meng Yangb, Zhiyuan Luod, You Wanga, Guang Li (2020)
- Predicting the Rate of Skin Penetration Using an Aggregated Conformal Prediction Framework by Martin Lindh, A. Karlรฉn, Ulf Norinder (2017)
- The application of conformal prediction to the drug discovery process by Martin Eklund, Ulf Norinder, Scott Boyer & Lars Carlsson (2014) ๐ฅ๐ฅ๐ฅ๐ฅ๐ฅ
- Distributional conformal prediction by Victor Chernozhukov, Kaspar Wรผthrich, Yinchu Zhu (2021) ๐ฅ๐ฅ๐ฅ๐ฅ๐ฅ
- Anomaly Detection of Trajectories with Kernel Density Estimation by Conformal Prediction by James Smith, Ilia Nouretdinov, Rachel Craddock, Charles Offer, and Alexander Gammerman (2009)
- Conformal prediction interval estimation and applications to day-ahead and intraday power markets by Christopher Kath, Florian Ziel (2019) ๐ฅ๐ฅ๐ฅ๐ฅ๐ฅ
- The application of conformal prediction to the drug discovery process by Martin Eklund, Ulf Norinder, Scott Boyer & Lars Carlsson (2013)
- Anomaly Detection of Trajectories with Kernel Density Estimation by Conformal Prediction by James Smith, Ilia Nouretdinov, Rachel Craddock, Charles Offer, Alexander Gammerman (Royal Holloway, UK, 2014)
- Conformal Prediction: a Unified Review of Theory and New Challenges by Gianluca Zeni, Matteo Fontana1 and Simone Vantini (Politecnico di Milano, Italy, 2021)
- Exchangeability, Conformal Prediction, and Rank Tests by Arun Kuchibhotla (Carnegie Mellon, 2021)
- Conformal prediction with localization by Leying Guan (Yale, 2020)
- Predicting skin sensitizers with confidence - Using conformal prediction to determine applicability domain of GARD by Andy Forreryd, Ulf Norinder, Tim Lindberg, Malin Lindstedt (2018)
- Binary classification of imbalanced datasets using conformal prediction by Ulf Norinder, Scott Boyer (2017)
- Discretized conformal prediction for efficient distribution-free inference by Wenyu Chen, Kelli-Jean Chun, and Rina Foygel Barber (2017)
- Validity, consonant plausibility measures, and conformal prediction by Leonardo Cella. and Ryan Martin (2021)
- Conformal Prediction Classification of a Large Data Set of Environmental Chemicals from ToxCast and Tox21 Estrogen Receptor Assays by Ulf Norinder, Scott Boyer (2016)
- Conformal prediction to define applicability domain โ A case study on predicting ER and AR binding by U. Norinder, A. Rybacka, P.Andersson (2016)
- Conformal prediction of biological activity of chemical compounds by Paolo Toccaceli, Ilia Nouretdinov, Alex Gammerman (Royal Holloway, UK, 2017) ๐ฅ๐ฅ๐ฅ๐ฅ๐ฅ
- Introducing conformal prediction in predictive modeling for regulatory purposes. A transparent and flexible alternative to applicability domain determination by Ulf Norinder, Lars Carlsson, Scott Boyer, Martin Eklund (2015)
- Aggregated Conformal Prediction by Lars CarlssonMartin EklundUlf Norinder (2014)
- Interpretation of Conformal Prediction Classification Models by Ernst Ahlberg, Ola Spjuth, Catrin Hasselgren, Lars Carlsson (2015)
- Cross-Conformal Prediction with Ridge Regression by Harris Papadopoulos (2015)
- Sparse conformal prediction for dissimilarity data by Frank-Michael Schleif, Xibin Zhu and Barbara Hammer (2015)
- Effective utilization of data in inductive conformal prediction using ensembles of neural networks by Tuve Lรถfstrรถm, Ulf Johansson and Henrik Bostrรถm (2013)
- Beyond the Basic Conformal Prediction Framework by Vladimir Vovk (2014)
- An electronic nose-based assistive diagnostic prototype for lung cancer detection with conformal prediction by Xianghao Zhan, Zhan Wang, Meng Yang, Zhiyuan Luo, You Wang, Guang Li (Stanford, Royal Holloway, China University of Mining and Technology, 2020)
- Predicting with confidence: Using conformal prediction in drug discovery by Jonathan Alvarsson, Staffan Arvidsson McShane, Ulf Norinder, Ola Spjuth (2021)
- Inductive conformal prediction for silent speech recognition by Ming Zhang, You Wang, Zhang Wei, Meng Yang, Zhiyuan Luo, Guang Li (2020)
- Large scale comparison of QSAR and conformal prediction methods and their applications in drug discovery by Nicolas Bosc, Francis Atkinson, Eloy Felix, Anna Gaulton, Anne Hersey and Andrew R. Leach (2019)
- Deep Conformal Prediction for Robust Models by Soundouss Messoudi, Sylvain Rousseau and Sรฉbastien Destercke (2020)
- Strong validity, consonance, and conformal prediction by Leonardo Cella and Ryan Martin (2020)
- Skin Doctor CP: Conformal Prediction of the Skin Sensitization Potential of Small Organic Molecules by Anke Wilm, U. Norinder, M. Agea, Christina de Bruyn Kops, Conrad Stork, J. Kรผhnl, J. Kirchmair (2020)
- Conformal prediction based active learning by linear regression optimization by Sergio Matiz, Kenneth E.Barner (2020)
- Conformal prediction intervals for the individual treatment effect by Danijel Kivaranovic, Robin Ristl, Martin Poschb, Hannes Leeb (2020)
- Nearest neighbor based conformal prediction by Lรกszlรณ Gyรถrfi and Harro Walk (2020)
- Concepts and Applications of Conformal Prediction in Computational Drug Discovery by Isidro Cortรฉs-Ciriano and Andreas Bender (2019) ๐ฅ๐ฅ๐ฅ๐ฅ๐ฅ
- Predicting Ames Mutagenicity Using Conformal Prediction in the Ames/QSAR International Challenge Project by Ulf Norinder, Ernst Ahlberg, Lars Carlsson (2018)
- Nested Conformal Prediction and the Generalized Jackknife by Arun Kuchibhotla and Aaditya Ramdas (Carnegie Mellon, 2019)
- Predictive inference with the jackknife+ by Rina Foygel Barber, Emmanuel Candรจs, Aaditya Ramdas, and Ryan Tibshirani (2020) ๐ฅ๐ฅ๐ฅ๐ฅ๐ฅ
- Nonparametric predictive distributions based on conformal prediction by Vladimir Vovk, Jieli Shen, Valery Manokhin and Min-ge Xie (Royal Holloway, UK, Rutgers, USA, 2018) ๐ฅ๐ฅ๐ฅ๐ฅ๐ฅ
- A Distribution-Free Test of Covariate Shift Using Conformal Prediction by Xiaoyu Hu and Jing Lei (Peking Univerity, China and Carnegie Mellon, USA, 2020) ๐ฅ๐ฅ๐ฅ๐ฅ๐ฅ
- Exchangeability, Conformal Prediction, and Rank Tests by Arun Kuchibhotla (Carnegie Mellon, 2021)
- Conformal prediction with localization by Leying Guan (2020)
- Multitask Modeling with Confidence Using Matrix Factorization and Conformal Prediction by Ulf Norinder, Fredrik Svensson
- Conformal prediction of HDAC inhibitors by U. Norinder, J.J.Navaka, E. Lopez-Lopez, D. Mucs & J.L. Medina-Franco (2019)
- Computing Full Conformal Prediction Set with Approximate Homotopy by Eugene Ndiaye, Ichiro Takeuchi (2019)
- Conformal Prediction Based on Raman Spectra for the Classification of Chinese Liquors by Jiao Gu, Huaibo Liu, Chaoqun Ma, Lei Li, Chun Zhu, Christ Glorieux, Guoqing Chen (2019)
- Efficient and minimal length parametric conformal prediction regions by Daniel Eck and Forrest Crawford (2019)
- Conformal Prediction for Students' Grades in a Course Recommender System by Raphael Morsomme and Evgueni Smirnov (2019)
- Efficient iterative virtual screening with Apache Spark and conformal prediction by Laeeq Ahmed, Valentin Georgiev, Marco Capuccini, Salman Toor, Wesley Schaal, Erwin Laure and Ola Spjuth (2018)
- Predicting Off-Target Binding Profiles With Confidence Using Conformal Prediction by Samuel Lampa, Jonathan Alvarsson, Staffan Arvidsson Mc Shane, Arvid Berg, Ernst Ahlberg, Ola Spjuth (2018)
- Maximizing gain in high-throughput screening using conformal prediction by Fredrik Svensson, Avid M. Afzal1, Ulf Norinder and Andreas Bender (2018)
- Conformalized Survival Analysis by Emmanuel Candรจs, Lihua Lei and Zhimei Ren (2021) ๐ฅ๐ฅ๐ฅ๐ฅ๐ฅ
- Random Forest Prediction Intervals by Haozhe Zhangโ , Joshua Zimmermanโ , Dan Nettletonโ and Daniel J. Nordmanโ (Iowa State University, USA, 2019)
- Conformal Training: Learning Optimal Conformal Classifiers | DeepMind by David Stutz (DeepMind), Krishnamurthy Dvijotham, Ali Taylan Cemgil and Arnaud Doucet (2021)
- Comparing the Bayes and typicalness frameworks by Thomas Melluish, Craig Saunders, Ilia Nouretdinov, and Volodya Vovk (Royal Holloway, UK, 2001). ๐ฅ๐ฅ๐ฅ๐ฅ๐ฅ
- Large-scale probabilistic predictors with and without guarantees of validity by Vladimir Vovk, Ivan Petej, and Valentina Fedorova (Royal Holloway, Yandex, NeurIPS) ๐ฅ๐ฅ๐ฅ๐ฅ๐ฅ
- Inductive conformal prediction for silent speech recognition by Ming Zhang, You Wang, Wei Zhang, Meng Yang, Zhiyuan Luo and Guang Li (2020)
- Conformal Prediction using Conditional Histograms by Matteo Sesia and Yaniv Romano (NeurIPS 2021 paper). ๐ฅ๐ฅ๐ฅ๐ฅ๐ฅ
- Valid prediction intervals for regression problems by Nicolas Dewolf, Bernard De Baets, Willem Waegeman (2021) ๐ฅ๐ฅ๐ฅ๐ฅ๐ฅ
- Application of conformal prediction interval estimations to market makersโ net positions by Wojciech Wisniewski, David Lindsay, Sian Lindsay (Royal Holloway, UK, 2020)
- Locally Valid and Discriminative Prediction Intervals for Deep Learning Models by Zhen Lin, Shubhendu Trivedi, Jimeng Sun (NeurIPS, 2021) ๐ฅ๐ฅ๐ฅ๐ฅ๐ฅ
- Distribution-Free Federated Learning with Conformal Predictions by Charles Lu and Jayashree Kalpathy-Cramer (2022)
- Coreset-based Conformal Prediction for Large-scale Learning by Nery Riquelme-Granada, Khuong Nguyen, Zhiyuan Luo (Royal Holloway, UK, 2019)
- Fast probabilistic prediction for kernel SVM via enclosing balls by Nery Riquelme-Granada, Khuong Nguyen, Zhiyuan Luo (Royal Holloway, UK, 2020)
- Conformalized density- and distance-based anomaly detection in time-series data by Evgeny Burnaev, Vladislav Ishimtsev (2016)
- Predictive Inference with Weak Supervision by Maxime Cauchois, Suyash Gupta, Alnur Ali and John Duchi (Stanford, 2022)
- Conformal Prediction in Clinical Medical Sciences by Janette Vazquez and Julio C. Facelli University of Utah, 2022)
- Provably Improving Expert Predictions with Conformal Prediction by Eleni Straitouri, Lequng Wang, Nastaran Okati and Manuel Gomez Rodriguez (Max Planck Institute for Software Systems / Cornell University, 2021).
- Conformal predictive distributions with kernels by Vladimir Vovk, Ilia Nouretdinov, Valery Manokhin, Alex Gammerman (Royal Holloway, UK, 2017)
- Multi-class probabilistic classification using inductive and cross VennโAbers predictors by Valery Manokhin (Royal Holloway, UK, 2017).
- Computationally efficient versions of conformal predictive distributions by Vladimir Vovk, Ivan Petej, Ilia Nouretdinov, Valery Manokhin, Alex Gammerman (Royal Holloway, UK, 2019).
- Cover your cough: detection of respiratory events with confidence using a smartwatch by Khuong An Nguyen, Zhiyuan Luo (Royal Holloway, 2019).
- Predicting Amazon customer reviews with deep confidence using deep learning and conformal prediction by Ulf Norinder and Petra Norinder (2022)
- Conformal Prediction for the Design Problem by Clara Fannjianga, Stephen Batesa, Anastasios Angelopoulosa, Jennifer Listgartena and Michael I. Jordan (Berkeley, 2022) ๐ฅ๐ฅ๐ฅ๐ฅ๐ฅ
- Image-to-Image Regression with Distribution-Free Uncertainty Quantification and Applications in Imaging by Anastasios N. Angelopoulos, Amit Kohli, Stephen Bates, Michael I. Jordan, Jitendra Malik, Thayer Alshaabi, Srigokul Upadhyayula, Yaniv Romano (Berkeley and Technion, 2022) ๐ฅ๐ฅ๐ฅ๐ฅ๐ฅ
- Conformal predictive decision making by Vladimir Vovk and Claus Bendtsen (2018).
- The Lifecycle of a Statistical Model: Model Failure Detection, Identification, and Refitting by Alnur Ali1, Maxime Cauchois and John C. Duchi (Stanford, 2022)
- E-values: Calibration, combination, and applications by Vladimir Vovk (Royal Holloway) and Ruodu Wang (University of Waterloo) (2019)
- Conformal Prediction Sets with Limited False Positives by Adam Fisch, Tal Schuster, Tommi Jaakkola and Regina Barzilay (MIT / Google Research, 2022)
- Adaptive Conformal Predictions for Time Series by Margaux Zaffran, Aymeric Dieuleveut, Olivier Fe ฬron, Yannig Goude, and Julie Josse (EDF / INRIA / CMAP, France, 2022) ๐ฅ๐ฅ๐ฅ๐ฅ๐ฅ
- Ensemble Conformalized Quantile Regression for Probabilistic Time Series Forecasting by Vilde Jensen, Filippo Maria Bianchiโ, Stian Norman Anfinsen (Arctic University of Norway, 2022)
- Prediction of Metabolic Transformations using Cross Venn-ABERS Predictors by Staffan Arvidsson, Ola Spjuth, Lars Carlsson and Paolo Toccaceli (University of Uppsala, Astra Zeneca, Royal Holloway, 2017)
- Adaptive Conformal Anomaly Detection for Time-series by Evgeny Burnaev, Alexander Bernstein, Vlad Ishimtsev and Ivan Nazarov (Skoltech, Moscow, Russia, 2017)
- Nonparametric predictive distributions based on conformal prediction by Vladimir Vovk, Jieli Shen, Valery Manokhin, Min-ge Xie, Ilia Nouretdinov and Alex Gammerman (Royal Holloway, University of London Rutgers University, 2017)
- What Can Conformal Inference Offer to Statistics? by Lihua Lei, Stanford University
- Vladimir Vovk, Royal Holloway, United Kingdom
- Alexander Gammerman, Royal Holloway, United Kingdom
- Glenn Shafer, Rutgers University, USA
- Emmanuel Candรจs, Stanford, USA
- Ryan Tibshiriani, Carnegie Mellon, USA
- Yaniv Romano, TechnionโIsrael Institute of Technology
- Michael I. Jordan, Berkeley, USA
- Jitendra Malik, Berkeley, USA
- Anastasios Angelopoulos, Berkeley, USA
- Lihua Lei, Stanford, USA
- Henrik Bostrรถm, KTH, Sweden
- Ulf Johansson, Jรถnkรถping University, Sweden
- Henrik Linusson, University of Borรฅs, Sweden
- Harris Papadopoulos, Frederick University, Cyprus
- Vladimir V'yugin, Institute for Information Transmission Problems (IITP), Russia
- Evgeny Burnaev, Skoltech, Russia
- Aaditya Ramdas, Carnegie Mellon, USA
- Benjamin LeRoy, Carnegie Mellon, USA
- Victor Chernozhukov, MIT, USA
- Ulf Norinder, Stockholm University, Sweden
- Ola Spjuth, Uppsala University, Sweden
- Ilia Nouretdinov, Royal Holloway, United Kingdom
- Measuring Models' Uncertainty: Conformal Prediction by Leo Dreyfus-Schmidt (Dataiku, 2020). ๐ฅ๐ฅ๐ฅ๐ฅ๐ฅ
- Conformal Prediction for Neural Regression Model by Pranab Ghosh (2021). ๐ฅ๐ฅ๐ฅ๐ฅ๐ฅ
- How to Handle Uncertainty in Forecasts by Michael Berk (2021)
- How to Add Uncertainty Estimation to your Models with Conformal Prediction by Zachary Warnes (2021)
- nonconformist: An easy way to estimate prediction intervals by Maria Jesus Ugarte (2021).
- Detecting Weird Data: Conformal Anomaly Detection by Matthew Burruss (2020).
- โMAPIEโ Explained Exactly How You Wished Someone Explained to You by Samuele Mazzanti (2022). ๐ฅ๐ฅ๐ฅ๐ฅ๐ฅ
- With MAPIE, uncertainties are back in machine learning by Vianney Taquet (2021) ๐ฅ๐ฅ๐ฅ๐ฅ๐ฅ
- How to Predict Risk-Proportional Intervals with Conformal Quantile Regression by by Samuele Mazzanti (2022). ๐ฅ๐ฅ๐ฅ๐ฅ๐ฅ
- Main website with research from Prof. Vladimir (Volodya) Vovk ๐ฅ๐ฅ๐ฅ๐ฅ๐ฅ
- Conformal Prediction - Prediction with guaranteed performance Royal Holloway, United Kingdom
- A Gentle Introduction to Conformal Prediction and Distribution-Free Uncertainty Quantification by Anastasios N. Angelopoulos ๐ฅ๐ฅ๐ฅ๐ฅ๐ฅ
- Reliable Predictive Inference by Yaniv Romano ๐ฅ๐ฅ๐ฅ๐ฅ๐ฅ
- Title: What Can Conformal Inference Offer to Statistics? by Lihua Lei, Stanford, 2022
- https://icml.cc/Conferences/2021/ScheduleMultitrack?event=8373 ๐ฅ๐ฅ๐ฅ๐ฅ๐ฅ
- https://cml.rhul.ac.uk/copa2021/ ๐ฅ๐ฅ๐ฅ๐ฅ๐ฅ
- https://cml.rhul.ac.uk/copa2020/ ๐ฅ๐ฅ๐ฅ๐ฅ๐ฅ
- https://cml.rhul.ac.uk/copa2019/ ๐ฅ๐ฅ๐ฅ๐ฅ๐ฅ
- https://cml.rhul.ac.uk/copa2018/ ๐ฅ๐ฅ๐ฅ๐ฅ๐ฅ
- https://cml.rhul.ac.uk/copa2017/ ๐ฅ๐ฅ๐ฅ๐ฅ๐ฅ
- Nonconformist by Henrik Linusson (2015) ๐ฅ๐ฅ๐ฅ๐ฅ๐ฅ
- Venn-ABERS Predictor by Paolo Toccaceli (2019), based on NeurIPS 2015 paper 'Large-scale probabilistic predictors with and without guarantees of validity' (#69 on papers list) ๐ฅ๐ฅ๐ฅ๐ฅ๐ฅ
- MAPIE - Model Agnostic Prediction Interval Estimator (2021) ๐ฅ๐ฅ๐ฅ๐ฅ๐ฅ
- 'Crรชpes' - Conformal regressors and predictive systems by Henrik Bostrรถm (2021)
- Conformalized Quantile Regression by Yaniv Romano (2019) ๐ฅ๐ฅ๐ฅ๐ฅ๐ฅ
- Conformal Classification by Anastasios N. Angelopoulos (2021)
- Orange3 Conformal Prediction
- EnbPI by Chen Xu (2021) TIME SERIES ๐๐๐๐๐ ๐ฅ๐ฅ๐ฅ๐ฅ๐ฅ
- Conformal: an R package to calculate prediction errors in the conformal prediction framework by Isidro Cortes, 2019
- Copula Conformal Multi Target Regression by Soundouss Messoudi (2021)
- Uncertainty Toolbox by Youngseog Chung, Willie Neiswanger, Ian Char and Han Guo (2021)
- Conformal Histogram Regression: efficient conformity scores for non-parametric regression problems by Mateo Sesia and Yaniv Romano (NeurIPS 2021). ๐ฅ๐ฅ๐ฅ๐ฅ๐ฅ
- Conformalized density- and distance-based anomaly detection in time-series data (KNN-CAD) by Evgeny Burnaev, Vladislav Ishimtsev (2016). Top #3 winning solution in Numenta competition ๐ฅ๐ฅ๐ฅ๐ฅ๐ฅ
- TorchUQ is an extensive library for uncertainty quantification (UQ) based on pytorch (2022)
- Conformal time-series forecasting" by Kamile ฬ Stankeviciute (Cambridge, NeurIPS 2021) TIME SERIES ๐๐๐๐๐ ๐ฅ๐ฅ๐ฅ๐ฅ๐ฅ
- Conformal Inference R Project maintained by Ryan Tibshirani (2016) ๐ฅ๐ฅ๐ฅ๐ฅ๐ฅ
- Prediction Bands by Rafael Izbicki and Benjamin LeRoy (2019)
- Conformal: an R package to calculate prediction errors in the conformal prediction framework by Isidro Cortes, 2019
- Online Time Series Anomaly Detectors by Alaine Iturria, 2021 ๐ฅ๐ฅ๐ฅ๐ฅ๐ฅ
- piRF - Prediction Intervals for Random Forests by Chancellor Johnstone and Haozhe Zhang (2019)
- conformalClassification: Transductive and Inductive Conformal Predictions for Classification Problems by Niharika Gauraha and Ola Spjuth (2019)
- RandomForest by Henrik Bostrรถm (2017) ๐ฅ๐ฅ๐ฅ๐ฅ๐ฅ
- LibCP -- A Library for Conformal Prediction ๐ฅ๐ฅ๐ฅ๐ฅ๐ฅ
- An Implementation of Venn-ABERS predictor ๐ฅ๐ฅ๐ฅ๐ฅ๐ฅ
- LibVM -- A Library for Venn Machine
- Scala-CP by Marco Capuccini (2017)' ๐ฅ๐ฅ๐ฅ๐ฅ๐ฅ (see tutorial section 'Conformal Prediction in Spark')