/Data-Analysis-and-Prediction-on-Crimes-in-Montgomery-County

Our study aims to find spatial and temporal criminal hotspots using a set of real-world datasets of crimes. We intend to perform extensive exploratory data analysis that will help us understand the factors affecting the crimes such as crime locations, timeshifts, response time etc., Based on the preliminary analysis and feature selection, we intend to predict the average response time for a given crime and also predict crime rate based on temporal data. Finally, we provided an analysis/ suggestions by combining our findings that would help the officials to make decisions accordingly in order to improve the safety of Montgomery County.

Primary LanguageSAS

BACKGROUND

Crime in the United States has been recorded since colonization. Crime rates have varied over time, with a sharp rise after 1963, reaching a broad bulging peak between the 1970s and early 1990s. Since then, crime has declined significantly, and current crime rates are approximately the same as those of the 1960s. (Source: wiki) Overall, the number of crimes of all kinds reported in the United States remained fairly flat last year after a three-year increase, according to an annual FBI report. But while crimes against property were down, physical assaults against people were up, accounting for 61 percent of the 7,120 incidents classified as hate crimes by law enforcement officials nationwide. State and local police forces are not required to report hate crimes to the FBI but the bureau has made a significant effort in recent years to increase awareness and response rates. Still, many cities and some entire states failed to collect or report the data last year, limiting the conclusions that can be drawn from the FBI report. Montgomery County is the most populous county in the U.S. state of Maryland, located adjacent to Washington, D.C. As of the 2010 census, the county's population was 971,777. As of July 1, 2018 The United States Census Bureau estimates the population of the county to be 1,052,567 residents with an increase of 8.3% since 2010. As one of the most affluent counties in the United States, Montgomery County also has the highest percentage (29.2%) of residents over 25 years of age who hold post-graduate degrees.The county has been ranked as one of the wealthiest in the United States. The Race of the county's residents is estimated to be 60.2% White (43.4% Non-Hispanic White), 19.9% African-American or Black, Hispanic or Latin, 15.6% Asian, 3.4% Two or more races, 0.7% American Indian or Alaskan Native, 0.1% Native Hawaiian or Pacific Islander The Age and Sex is estimated to be : ● 6.3% Persons under 5 years ● 23.3% Persons under 18 years ● 15.5% Persons 65 years and over ● 51.6% Females

OBJECTIVE

Our study aims to find spatial and temporal criminal hotspots using a set of real-world datasets of crimes. We intend to perform extensive exploratory data analysis that will help us understand the factors affecting the crimes such as crime locations, timeshifts, response time etc., Based on the preliminary analysis and feature selection, we intend to predict the average response time 3 for a given crime and also predict crime rate based on temporal data. Finally, we provided an analysis/ suggestions by combining our findings that would help the officials to make decisions accordingly in order to improve the safety of Montgomery County.