maxbiostat/R0_uncertainty
Some remarks on prior modelling for the basic reproductive number in the Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) epidemic model
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Issues
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check out this course
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Does prior containment work?
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COVID data and model
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Pesky warnings
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Test single ODE versus two ODEs
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Bits and pieces
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Experiment 1: simple SIR
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cite this paper
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Priors for R0 -- catalogue
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Can we do a formal sensitivity analysis?
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Experiment 2: single ODE parametrisation
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Check this paper out
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View and analyse this discussion
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Compare choices for the likelihood
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Prior sensitivity
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Implement log version of SIR
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Test the priors in this example
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Improvements to simulation code
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Implement Gamma priors for beta, gamma
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correct implementation of moment matching
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Information sources
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General questions
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Approximate solution to dR/dt
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code for fitting simple SIR
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Good prior for (gamma, beta)
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Find a "MWE" with Stan
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Posterior predictive checks
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check R0 reparametrisation
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Check correction for population size
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Determine which models we are going to explore
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Migrate to the conference template
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TODO: put the figures from KL in
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Example
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Extended abstract
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